Yan J Enjoy the joy of copulas: With a package copula. Under the hypotheses that the phenomenon is stationary i. Personalised recommendations. Similar to Fig. Please take this quick survey to tell us about what happens after you publish a paper. Views Read Edit View history. Also, the estimated return period below is a statistic : it is computed from a set of data the observationsas distinct from the theoretical value in an idealized distribution. Referring to Chow et al. Moreover, we deal with iid data, i. Based on the inequalities in Eq.

A return period, also known as a recurrence interval or repeat interval, is an average time or an be allowed to go forward in a zone of a certain risk or designing structures to withstand events with a certain return period. Return period is useful for risk analysis (such as natural, inherent, or hydrologic risk of failure). The concept of return period in stationary univariate frequency the probability of exceedance (or failure) corresponding to a specific and.

A return period, also known as a recurrence interval (sometimes or to design structures to withstand an event with a certain return period).

Kunstmann H, Kastens M Direct propagation of probability density functions in hydrological equations.

## Dismissing return periods! SpringerLink

Views Read Edit View history. R package version 1. The most logical interpretation for this is to take the return period as the counting rate in a Poisson distribution since it is the expectation value of the rate of occurrences.

Despite the connotations of the name "return period".

If a hydrologic engineering design is based on the results from the single-variable frequency analysis, then this over-evaluation will lead to an increased cost. Thus, Yue and Rasmussen collected and discussed some concepts related to conditional and joint distributions and return periods, and derived some relationships between univariate and bivariate return periods.

Specific return period to failure |
Moreover, advocating the multivariate nature of some geophysical phenomena such as floods, droughts or storms is also insufficient to assert that a multivariate approach is better then the univariate. Gupta SK Modern hydrology and sustainable water development. Video: Specific return period to failure Recurrence Interval (Return Period) Share article. For example, hydraulic structures are designed to fulfill specific requirements, and are characterized by some key features e. In the second case, we implicitly deal with a system which is sensitive to and can fail for a set of bivariate events characterized by the same joint probability of exceedance. Indeed, based on Eq. |

## AboutHydrology Return Period

The unconditional return period does not assume a flood has occurred in year 1. In the design of hydrologic infrastructure, the probability of failure over its against the flood event with that specified average return period. The definition of the return period leads to the formulation of the so‐called probability of failure event A occurs at least once over a specified period of time : the design life l (e.g.

Environmetrics 21 2 — Google Scholar.

The probability of at least one event that exceeds design limits during the expected life of the structure is the complement of the probability that no events occur which exceed design limits. We also introduce the expressions of some joint and conditional probabilities corresponding with some bivariate return periods commonly studied in the literature. However, this did not prevent subsequent comparisons reported in several works.

## return period to be used for hydrologic design, Victor M. Ponce

Often that is a close approximation, in which case the probabilities yielded by this formula hold approximately. In these cases, if some variables of interest are known with uncertainty, a probabilistic model can be used to describe them and their interaction, according to physical constraints and device operating principles.

Specific return period to failure |
It is not actually. Even though this line of reasoning seems to be correct, the following question arises. Video: Specific return period to failure Recurrence Periods of Earthquake-Induced Submarine Landslides If a hydrologic engineering design is based on the results from the single-variable frequency analysis, then this over-evaluation will lead to an increased cost. Kunstmann and Kastens ; Ashkar and Aucoin ; Serinaldiand in the present case it yields Eq. This does not mean that a year flood will happen regularly every years, or only once in years. Environmetrics 21 2 — Google Scholar. |

Fًxق ¼ 1 ہ p ¼ P½X xٹ. In hydrology, design return periods vary typically from 10 yr to yr, and in area, the risk of failure, the importance of the structure, and the desired degree of In certain cases, particularly for areas exceeding ha, longer return periods.

The conditional probability of failure (given that the earthquake with the specified return period has happened) is the value of this CDF at FS equal to 1. 9.

The evolution of such a literature is an interesting example of how misconceptions tend to spread more easily than good procedures and recommendations.

This approach is known as transformation of two random variables e.

Based on the inequalities in Eq. Thus, Yue and Rasmussen collected and discussed some concepts related to conditional and joint distributions and return periods, and derived some relationships between univariate and bivariate return periods.

The comments of four anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged. It is not actually. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Specific return period to failure |
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It is not actually. Durante F, Salvadori G On the construction of multivariate extreme value models via copulas. This question is mainly academic as the results obtained will be similar under both the Poisson and binomial interpretations. Gupta SK Modern hydrology and sustainable water development. Environmetrics 21 7—8 — CrossRef Google Scholar. Even if the historic return interval is a lot less than years, if there are a number of less-severe events of a similar nature recorded, the use of such a model is likely to provide useful information to help estimate the future return interval. |

When we move from stationary to nonstationary conditions i. Environmetrics 21 7—8 — CrossRef Google Scholar.

Each panel displays both the set of pairs falling within the domains over which a specific probability is defined, and the subsets of pairs falling within the critical regions according to the different definitions.

However, this did not prevent subsequent comparisons reported in several works.

The agreement between theoretical and empirical probabilities, and the visualization of the sets and subsets of interest in each case should definitely clarify that 1 there is no definition better than others, 2 each definition is coherent with the scenario that it describes, and 3 making comparisons between probabilities defined over different sets and subsets of data is allowable only to show the error related to an incorrect choice of the probabilistic model. This solves the lack of dichotomy mentioned above.

Bold black lines define the domains where the probability is computed, whereas grey areas denote the critical regions fulfilling the condition related to each type of probability. One would like to be able to interpret the return period in probabilistic models.